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Italy's Financial Troubles 4 August 2011
Debt-laden Italy is likely to default, but Spain might just avoid it, according to the British think tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research.The CEBR says Italy could default as Mr Berlusconi's budget is not tight enough. Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third and fourth largest economies, are both facing pressure from markets to sort their economies out. But Italy should be the focus, according to the CEBR, as it is likely to be the next victim of the debt crisis.Italy's starting debt position is at 128%, much worse than Spain's 75%. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's £38bn austerity package is not tight enough, and will not be able to repair its weak economy, says the think tank. Mr Berlusconi sought to calm fears the country is headed for a financial abyss in a speech to Parliament on Wednesday, in a bid to halt stocks crashing further he told parliament that Italy's economy was "solid". But its economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2011 and further growth is expected to remain sluggish.Many economists believe that the eurozone's third largest economy risks being engulfed in the debt crisis. In a report published on Thursday, the CEBR calculated that Italy's debt would rise from 128% of annual output to 150% by 2017 if bond yields stay above the current 6% and growth remains stagnant."Even if the cost of borrowing goes back down to 4%, the growth rate is so anaemic that we see the debt-GDP ratio remaining at 123% in 2018," said Doug McWilliams, the CEBR's chief executive.With Italy and Spain weighed down by debt, the think tank modelled "good" and "bad" economic scenarios for both. It found that Italy will not avoid default unless it sees an unlikely big jump in economic growth. However, it said, "there is a real chance that Spain may avoid default".
David WilleyBBC News, RomeSilvio Berlusconi quite rightly said he must not make the financial markets nervous. But it was very significant that he delayed his speech by two-and-a-half hours so that markets would be closed by the time he spoke.He said the banks were solvent and the economy was solid; that Italy was in a more favourable situation than many other European Union members. This is the sort of language he has used before. But quite frankly many Italians do not believe him. And we will have to see what the markets make of it when they re-open. Basically, the tenor of Mr Berlusconi's remarks was: "What is all the fuss about? We have a flourishing economy."Well, this is not true. Italy has almost zero growth, big productivity problems, and prospects for the future are dim because it is going to have to pay more to re-finance its very heavy public debt. So I do not think it was a very convincing speech as far as many ordinary Italians are concerned, and I do not think it is going to convince Mr Berlusconi's European partners.
The chart for the Italian republic is set for 10 June 1946, 18.10 CED -2.00, Rome. (from Nick Campion's 'The Book of Woorld Horoscopes'.At first glance we can see that all the planets in this chart are above the horizon. Pluto, the ruler of the ascendant is in Leo in the 9th house, on the Saturn/Mars midpoint and square the Moon in Scorpio in the 12th house. This can be interpreted as an underlying destructive energy excercised by those in power over the Italian people, who are likely to have to make sacrifices as a result.That this is a painful process likely to affect their finances and family values can be seen by the Venus-Saturn conjunction in Cancer square to Chiron and Jupiter, indicating hardship through financial irresponsibility. The square from Mercury to Neptune indicates confused or ill-informed communication, of not being able to see or not wanting to see reality. The trine aspect from Jupiter in Libra to the Sun-Node-Uranus conjunction in Gemini suggests collective optimism and their lively, verbal expression as a hallmark of their individuality, which can be seen quite clearly in their gesticulations.
But as transiting Saturn is now in Libra, activating the Jupiter-Chiron square to Saturn-Venus, they are being put to the test. It is likely that they won't feel quite so optimistic when this transit is over. Transiting Uranus and Pluto are aspecting natal Mercury and Neptune respectively and this is bringing to the surface all that is corrupt and in need of change. And with transiting Neptune hovering around the I/C they are likely to find themselves in a situation that will leave them feeling vulnerable and insecure. L.S.
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